Currency news / May 15, 2025

Dollar apprehension on FX talks

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamMay 15, 2025

Market snapshot:

UK economy grows
US data in focus again today

Yesterday's currency recap

Dollar selling continued in the morning after reports confirmed that the US and South Korea held FX talks on 5th May. Markets took news of the talks as a reason to speculate that South Korea won’t seek to stop its currency rising against the dollar and that exchange rates could well feature in trade talks with the US. However, some of these losses were reversed by the close of European trading hours.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.35%	2.0638
GBPCAD	0.20%	1.8577
GBPCHF	0.01%	1.1172
GBPDKK	-0.18%	8.8566
GBPEUR	-0.18%	1.187
GBPJPY	-0.65%	194.97
GBPNOK	-0.13%	13.7762
GBPNZD	0.32%	2.2483
GBPSEK	-0.02%	12.9401
GBPUSD	0.02%	1.3305

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 15.05.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 15.05.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	PPI MoM	Apr	0.20%	-0.40%
USD	PPI YoY	Apr	2.50%	2.70%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	May 10	228,000	228,000
USD	Retail Sales MoM	Apr	0.00%	1.40%
USD	Retail Sales YoY	Apr	0.30%	0.40%

Today's speeches

USD: Fed Powell, Barr
GBP: BoE Dhingra

What we think

UK GDP for Q1 came in higher than expected this morning, with growth at 0.7% above the 0.6% expected by economists. Growth was boosted by an increase in exports to the US ahead of Trump's tariffs, as well as an increase in activity in the services and construction sector.

Although the GDP figures paint a promising picture, sterling's trajectory has been somewhat erratic. This can be attributed to the report's retrospective nature, contrasting with the market's forward-looking perspective. Concerns linger for the remainder of the year, fuelled by diminished business confidence, trade tensions and tariffs.

For the rest of the day, focus falls on the US again with retail sales, PPI data and jobless claims. A miss on PPI and retail sales could well give another reason for dollar selling to continue given the market's current view on the greenback.

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