Currency news / March 26, 2026

The noise is deafening

3 min read Lawrence Kaplin

Lawrence KaplinMarch 26, 2026

Market snapshot:

GBP: Sticky Inflation
USD: Sideways for now
EUR: Hawkish ECB

Yesterday's currency recap

Yesterday’s trading session was once again dominated by a plethora of contradictory geopolitical headlines from the US and Iran, as well as a host of other “interested parties”.

Trump continues to talk up the chances of a ceasefire, whilst Iran remains steadfast that "no legitimate negotiations" have taken place; and, later, flatly rejecting the US's 15 point plan.

Elsewhere, UK annual YoY headline inflation data released yesterday came in as expected at 3.0%, with core inflation registering above forecast at 3.2%. This, combined with Monday’s PMI data, has prompted further hawkish rhetoric from the BoE. Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene said Wednesday inflation persistence risks have risen "perhaps significantly" and as a result UK households may have become more sensitive to inflation shocks. She highlighted a recent Citibank survey which showed one-year inflation expectations surged to 5.4% in March from a previous 3.3% in February, marking the biggest monthly jump in over 20 years.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.08%	1.9223
GBPCAD	0.10%	1.8465
GBPCHF	0.09%	1.0584
GBPDKK	0.12%	8.6344
GBPEUR	0.10%	1.1556
GBPJPY	0.01%	212.915
GBPNOK	-0.54%	12.9252
GBPNZD	0.14%	2.3048
GBPSEK	0.01%	12.45
GBPUSD	-0.16%	1.3364

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 17:00 GMT, 25.03.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 17:00 GMT, 25.03.26

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	GfK Consumer Confidence	Apr	-27.5	-24.7
EUR	Manufacturing Confidence	Mar	n/a	102
EUR	Consumer Confidence	Mar	89	91
EUR	M3 Money Supply YoY	Feb	3.20%	3.30%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	Mar 21	n/a	205k
USD	Continuing Claims	Mar 14	n/a	1857k

What we think

Yesterday’s inflation readings pre-dated the oil price spike generated by the conflict in Iran. The flat reading was, therefore, not a surprise; but, given that the reading was considerably above the target of 2%, it’s inevitable that upcoming Bank of England meetings will become ‘live’ for a hike.

Markets will continue to move headline-to-headline in relation to the conflict in Iran. Last night, Trump insisted that Iran is at the negotiating table; but, the conclusion of hostilities seems a lot further than Trump is attempting to convey. Markets will be watching closely for US troops being deployed on the ground.

There is a plethora of Fed speakers this evening who will no doubt face questions about the path of interest rates.

Watch out for rate hike expectations increasing which will boost the USD.

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