Currency news / July 2, 2025

Dollar bounces as Trump's tax bill passes the Senate

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamJuly 2, 2025

Market snapshot:

Trump also states 9th July deadline will stick

Yesterday's currency recap

The dollar bounced back by the close of European trade following a series of better than expected numbers stateside. ISM manufacturing rose to 49, above the 48.8 estimate, and JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) openings came in much higher than expected at 7,769,000 versus the 7,300,000 forecast.

Early on in the day, both GBPUSD and EURUSD were trading at fresh three-year highs. The US dollar was also boosted after the Senate passed Donald Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill” tax and spending cut bill.

June’s eurozone CPI matched expectations at 2% year-on-year, reinforcing the prevailing outlook for a single additional 25bp rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) before year-end.

Read more about US job openings and employment figures here - When is the next JOLTS report?

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.06%	2.0883
GBPCAD	0.30%	1.8744
GBPCHF	-0.05%	1.0887
GBPDKK	0.08%	8.6979
GBPEUR	0.08%	1.1658
GBPJPY	-0.30%	197.189
GBPNOK	0.02%	13.8347
GBPNZD	0.08%	2.2546
GBPSEK	0.37%	13.0346
GBPUSD	-0.10%	1.372

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 02.07.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 02.07.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	ADP Payrolls	Jun	98,000	37,000

What we think

Overnight Trump stuck with his 9th July deadline for higher tariffs to resume and singled out Japan saying “I’m not sure we’re going to make a deal”. However the mood still remains pretty positive and markets are still relatively calm to start the day. The dollar has started the day slightly stronger ahead of ADP payroll numbers today. A better than expected number again today, could well favour the dollar further on a short term basis.

Overnight, Trump reaffirmed his intention to move forward with higher tariffs by the 9th July, explicitly singling out Japan, saying: “I’m not sure we’re going to make a deal.” Despite these developments, overall sentiment remains upbeat, with markets maintaining a steady tone as the day begins.

The dollar is opening on firmer ground ahead of today’s ADP payroll figures - another better-than-expected number could well favour the dollar further on a short term basis.

We specialise in currency guidance

Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.

Have a great day.