Currency news / July 1, 2025

Dollar continues to retreat

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamJuly 1, 2025

Market snapshot:

Dollar index falls to fresh 3-year lows
ECB concerned with ascent of EURUSD

Yesterday's currency recap

More USD selling yesterday taking the dollar index to fresh 3-year lows despite Federal Reserve (Fed) member Bostic’s best efforts to sound hawkish. Late in the afternoon, he commented that he believes there will be one more rate cut this year, followed by three more in 2026.

Read more about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions here - When is the next Fed interest rate decision?

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.60%	2.0878
GBPCAD	-0.26%	1.8697
GBPCHF	-0.60%	1.0896
GBPDKK	-0.40%	8.6986
GBPEUR	-0.40%	1.1659
GBPJPY	-0.32%	197.819
GBPNOK	0.08%	13.8358
GBPNZD	-0.50%	2.2531
GBPSEK	-0.07%	13.0007
GBPUSD	-0.01%	1.3714

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 01.07.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 01.07.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	ISM Manufacturing	Jun	48.80	48.50
USD	ISM Prices Paid	Jun	69.30	69.40
USD	ISM Employment	Jun	47.00	46.80
USD	JOLTS Job Openings	May	7,300,000	7,391,000
EUR	CPI MoM	Jun	0.20%	0.00%
EUR	CPI YoY	Jun	2.20%	1.90%

What we think

Reports this morning are suggesting that the EU is willing to accept Donald Trump's 10% universal tariff but wants lower rates for key sectors like drugs and chips. The White House also commented that they are working on a deal with India.

The dollar is continuing to grind lower this morning, ahead of ISM manufacturing numbers. As ever, anything less than expected will spark fears over the US economy and likely hit the dollar. Ahead of this, we have EU CPI numbers coming out, expected to show a pick-up in prices.

Also this morning we had some comments from the ECB VP Luis de Guindos on the relative price of the euro versus the dollar. Whilst current levels are not a cause for concern, the speed of the ascent and a move beyond $1.20 would be tricky for policymakers.

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