Currency news / July 31, 2025

Dollar holds the high ground as Powell leans hawkish

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamJuly 31, 2025

Market snapshot:

Greenback in control as GBPUSD and EURUSD hit new lows

Yesterday's currency recap

The USD powered higher after the Fed held rates steady but delivered a hawkish message, with Powell stressing the need to stay vigilant on inflation despite softer growth signals. Q2 GDP surprised to the upside at 3%, while ADP jobs data reinforced a resilient labour market. Treasury yields pushed higher dragging EUR and GBP lower, with both unable to mount any kind of bounce as the market leaned into renewed USD strength. Risk sentiment turned cautious, with equities slipping and flows rotating into the dollar as the safe-haven of choice.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.30%	2.0574
GBPCAD	-0.25%	1.8337
GBPCHF	0.07%	1.077
GBPDKK	0.07%	8.6366
GBPEUR	0.07%	1.1575
GBPJPY	-0.18%	197.864
GBPNOK	0.05%	13.6329
GBPNZD	0.15%	2.2454
GBPSEK	0.35%	12.9324
GBPUSD	-0.56%	1.3276

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 31.07.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 31.07.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	German CPI MoM	Jul	0.20%	0.60%
EUR	German CPI YoY	Jul	2.00%	2.00%
USD	Core PCE MoM	Jun	0.30%	0.20%
USD	Core PCE YoY	Jun	2.70%	2.70%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	Jul 26	224,000	217,000

What we think

USD bias remains firmly bullish ahead of jobless claims and core PCE numbers today. Soft numbers may spark a USD pullback. However, losses may be minimal, especially ahead of nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Furthermore, continued strong numbers stateside will likely lead to further USD gains.

German CPI numbers are also on the agenda today ahead of tomorrow's EU CPI numbers as well. French CPI held at 1% in July, but had little impact.

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