Currency news / March 7, 2025

EUR set for best week since 2009

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamMarch 7, 2025

Market snapshot:

EUR supported by ECB outlook
Strong NFP jobs number needed to take pressure off USD

Yesterday's currency recap

GBP took a dive yesterday after UK construction PMI showed the sector contracted more than expected in February, falling to the lowest level since May 2020 and highlighting concerns in the sector.

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 0.25% as widely expected and EUR drew additional support after the ECB stated that rates are “becoming meaningfully restrictive”. Current expectations are now only two additional rate cuts by the ECB this year.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.30%	2.0297
GBPCAD	-0.56%	1.8397
GBPCHF	-0.54%	1.1426
GBPDKK	-0.27%	8.8901
GBPEUR	-0.27%	1.1919
GBPJPY	-0.34%	191.375
GBPNOK	-0.55%	14.0057
GBPNZD	-0.40%	2.2429
GBPSEK	-0.40%	13.0929
GBPUSD	-0.06%	1.2907

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 07.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 07.03.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	GDP QoQ	Q4	0.10%	0.10%
EUR	GDP YoY	Q4	0.90%	0.90%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	Feb	160,000	143,000
USD	Unemployment Rate	Feb	4.00%	4.00%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	Feb	0.30%	0.50%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	Feb	4.10%	4.10%

What we think

It is nonfarm payroll day and markets expect 160,000 jobs to have been added, whilst the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%. As we said earlier this week, it will need a really strong number to stop the USD depreciation that we’ve seen all week. GBPUSD and EURUSD still remain near four-month highs.

The main talking point has been the EUR rally this week, with the currency eyeing up its best weeks versus USD since 2009 bolstered by Germany being perceived as more of a fiscal stimulator than a detractor. Versus USD, technical indicators suggest that EURUSD is overbought and a retracement could be due. Against GBP, the same indicator doesn't suggest the move is overdone, leaving potential for EUR to gain further versus GBP. The next level of support for GBPEUR is at the low last seen in January.

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