Currency news

Fed cut bets lift risk currencies

Head of FX Analysis
-
3
min read
Published:
August 5, 2025
  • Rate cut prospects buoy risk appetite
  • CHF lags


Yesterday's currency recap

USD losses were capped after Friday’s soft US payrolls report, with USD moves consolidating in a tight range yesterday.

GBP finished in the green ahead of Thursday's BoE meeting.

CHF underperformed despite surprise upside on CPI numbers as markets continued to focus on the 39% export tariff on Switzerland. The Swiss government announced yesterday it is ready present a new attractive offer to the US.

Read more about the Bank of England's interest rate decision here:

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
GBPAUD 0.20% 2.055
GBPCAD 0.02% 1.8305
GBPCHF 0.62% 1.0741
GBPDKK 0.24% 8.5708
GBPEUR 0.24% 1.1485
GBPJPY -0.12% 195.469
GBPNOK 0.32% 13.6391
GBPNZD 0.23% 2.2497
GBPSEK 0.25% 12.8454
GBPUSD 0.06% 1.3289


*Daily move - against
G10 rates at 7:00 am, 05.08.25

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 05.08.25

Key data points

Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
EUR PPI MoM Jun 0.90% -0.60%
EUR PPI YoY Jun 0.50% 0.30%
USD ISM Services PMI Jul 51.50 50.80
USD ISM Prices Paid Jul 67.50 67.50
USD ISM New Orders Jul 51.30 51.30
USD ISM Employment Jul 47.20 47.20

What we think

Today brings potentially directional movement with the release of the US ISM Services PMI, which could see demand for USD pick up, given expectations are for further expansion in the sector in July.

For the EUR, EU PPI numbers are due for release at 10am, indicating higher price pressures which would support recent argument that the ECB could well be done with cutting interest rates.

General risk appetite seems to have renewed with stocks attempting to recoup last week's losses as markets continue to digest Friday’s job numbers and the increased odds of a rate cut in September by the Fed. Fed member Mary Daly commented last night that the time for a rate cut is nearing and that two more rate cuts will be needed.

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