Currency news / June 6, 2025

Job numbers key for the dollar

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamJune 6, 2025

Market snapshot:

ECB cuts rates and signals end of cycle
Focus back on the dollar with nonfarm payrolls

Yesterday's currency recap

We saw a bit of volatility yesterday afternoon, following the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, US data, and tariff headlines. The ECB cut rates by 0.25%, as expected, but then went on to indicate that the rate cutting cycle could well be coming to an end. As a result, the euro gained, with markets reducing the chances of another rate cut this year. However, as European trading drew to a close, the euro's earlier gains slipped away.

Following higher jobless claims, the dollar initially sold-off, dragging treasury yields down. However, it clawed back its losses after news of a constructive phone call between President Xi and Trump.

So, all in all a volatile couple of hours but markets seem none the wiser about the dollar and continue to wait for more concrete developments on the US-China trade talks, as well as today's job numbers.

Read more about the ECB's interest rate decision here - When is the next ECB interest rate decision?

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.14%	2.0843
GBPCAD	0.13%	1.8564
GBPCHF	0.52%	1.1152
GBPDKK	0.01%	8.8556
GBPEUR	0.01%	1.1872
GBPJPY	1.00%	195.444
GBPNOK	-0.20%	13.6777
GBPNZD	-0.07%	2.2473
GBPSEK	0.10%	13.0012
GBPUSD	0.20%	1.3582

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 06.06.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 06.06.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	May	126,000	177,000
USD	Unemployment Rate	May	4.20%	4.20%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	May	0.30%	0.20%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	May	3.70%	3.80%

What we think

Today's US jobs report is set to be the dominating factor for markets. Expectations are for a softening of job additions - from 177,000 in April down to 126,000 in May. Unemployment is set to stay at 4.2%. As we have seen this week, the dollar has been very sensitive to data points, with the currency falling to near the lows of this year. A number below 100,000 could well add to more rate cut bets by the Fed for this year, and, thus, will likely add to more dollar selling given the current sentiment in the market.

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