Currency news / November 20, 2025

US jobs day!

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamNovember 20, 2025

Market snapshot:

Strong number today and USD advance likely to continue

Yesterday's currency recap

USD firmed up across the day, rebounding off recent weekly lows.

GBP also rebounded marginally, following the drop in CPI earlier in the morning, with focus firmly on the budget next week. Earlier in the day it was also reported that left-leaning Labour MPs are preparing for a possible leadership challenge to Starmer, claiming they have enough support to trigger a contest. Potential challengers include Lucy Powell, Lisa Nandy, and Louise Haigh.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.10%	2.0221
GBPCAD	-0.18%	1.8354
GBPCHF	0.06%	1.0517
GBPDKK	-0.22%	8.4574
GBPEUR	-0.22%	1.1324
GBPJPY	0.13%	204.686
GBPNOK	0.16%	13.3072
GBPNZD	0.40%	2.333
GBPSEK	0.20%	12.4701
GBPUSD	-0.52%	1.3075

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 19.11.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 19.11.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	Nov 15	226,000	0
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	Sep	54,000	22,000
USD	Unemployment Rate	Sep	4.30%	4.30%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	Sep	0.30%	0.30%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	Sep	3.70%	3.70%

What we think

All eyes on the delayed September NFP –a small but mighty risk event given how fragile the December cut narrative has become. Consensus sits around 54,000 job additions, a modest rebound from August’s weak 22,000. There is a case for far softer print – even the risk of a negative number –given recent soft ADP data. A weak release keeps the “December cut” dream alive. A beat probably rules it out and we'd expect a strong USD in the short term.

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