Currency news

Weekly Jobless Claims in focus

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
08/08/24
    • Risk appetite wanes overnight
    • US Jobless Claims are key in dictating risk appetite


    Yesterday's currency recap

    Risk appetite fell away yesterday evening with US equities finishing lower and Asian equities overnight dropping off as well. AUD has continued to gain overnight after the RBA Governor Bullock reiterated hawkish comments from earlier in the week, stating the Bank “will not hesitate” to raise rates if needed. GBP continues to weaken.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD -0.50% 1.9371
    GBPCAD -1.00% 1.7444
    GBPCHF -0.13% 1.0920
    GBPDKK -0.04% 8.6678
    GBPEUR -0.04% 1.1615
    GBPJPY -0.27% 186.6070
    GBPNOK -0.20% 13.6882
    GBPNZD -0.03% 2.1165
    GBPSEK -0.50% 13.2505
    GBPUSD 0.12% 1.2705


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 08.08.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 08.08.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    USD Initial Jobless Claims Aug 3 240,000 249,000

    Upcoming speeches

    • None today.

    What we think

    With JP Morgan raising the chances of a US recession this year from 25% to 35%, focus today will be on the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. A higher number will fuel the fears of rising unemployment and that the economy may be in trouble. As a result, we may see markets once again raise the prospects of larger rate cuts by the Fed, which would be USD negative. A lower number will encourage risk appetite but also be USD positive on the basis of less fear about prospects for the US economy.

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