Currency news / February 26, 2026

By-election key for GBP today

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamFebruary 26, 2026

Market snapshot:

US and Iran set for third round of talks

Yesterday's currency recap

Market trading was range-bound with a slight USD bias to the downside; JPY was notably weak; GBP gains were sustained by an improved risk sentiment but capped by political risk. AUD continued to outperform amid relative macro strength and rising rate expectations – all set against the backdrop of tariff uncertainty and global policy divergence.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.36%	1.9043
GBPCAD	0.33%	1.8539
GBPCHF	0.28%	1.0470
GBPDKK	0.18%	8.5757
GBPEUR	0.18%	1.1478
GBPJPY	0.75%	211.837
GBPNOK	0.26%	12.943
GBPNZD	0.01%	2.2615
GBPSEK	0.13%	12.2308
GBPUSD	0.41%	1.3546

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 17:00 GMT, 25.02.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 17:00 GMT, 25.02.26

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	21-Feb	--	206k
JPY	Tokyo CPI YoY	Feb	1.40%	1.50%
JPY	Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY	Feb	1.70%	2.00%
JPY	Industrial Production YoY	Jan P	5.00%	2.60%
JPY	Retail Sales YoY	Jan	0.10%	-0.90%
JPY	Industrial Production MoM	Jan P	5.60%	-0.10%

What we think

Today's spotlight falls on US labour data, Tokyo inflation, and UK political risk. In the US, Initial Jobless Claims (prev. 206k) will act as a pulse check on labour market resilience. A meaningful rise would lean USD-negative, while another contained print reinforces the higher-for-longer Fed narrative and supports the USD at the margin. Geopolitics will be agenda with Iran and the US set to have a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva.

In Japan, focus is squarely on Tokyo CPI (YoY seen 1.4%, ex-fresh food 1.7%), both expected to cool from prior readings. A softer inflation print would likely temper normalisation expectations at the Bank of Japan and weigh on JPY, while any upside surprise could quickly revive rate-hike pricing and support the yen.

GBP has eased off of yesterday’s highs ahead of today’s Gorton and Denton by-elections. Market pricing (~70% Greens, 20% Reform, 10% Labour) keeps GBP trading with a political risk premium. A Greens outcome would likely reinforce concerns of a leftward tilt and weigh modestly on GBP; Reform less so; Labour would be seen as stabilising. As such, GBP crosses remain headline-sensitive into the vote.

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