Currency news / March 25, 2026

Potential ceasefire helps calm market nerves

3 min read Lawrence Kaplin

Lawrence KaplinMarch 25, 2026

Market snapshot:

GBP: Weak services data
EUR: ECB warns on inflation
USD: Trump seeking a deal with Iran

Yesterday's currency recap

The currency markets traded in a tight range yesterday, as geopolitical headlines came in thick and fast from both the US and Iran. Overnight, Trump claimed the US was in negotiations with Iranian officials, while Iran claimed no such talks had taken place and "the US is negotiating with itself".

S&P Global PMI data (often seen as a leading indicator) from the US, UK and Europe came in weaker than forecast; and, perhaps more concerning, the inflation readings came in much higher than expected.

UK input price inflation jumped to its highest in just over three years amid a surge in manufacturing costs. S&P Global Chief economist stated “The war in the Middle East has hit the UK economy in March, stalling growth while driving inflation sharply higher.”

UK annual YoY headline inflation data, released earlier this morning, came in as expected at 3.0%.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.05%	1.9208
GBPCAD	-0.10%	1.8445
GBPCHF	0.05%	1.0575
GBPDKK	-0.10%	8.6235
GBPEUR	-0.01%	1.1545
GBPJPY	0.05%	212.9
GBPNOK	-0.10%	12.995
GBPNZD	0.15%	2.3015
GBPSEK	0.08%	12.485
GBPUSD	-0.19%	1.3385

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 17:00 GMT, 24.03.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 17:00 GMT, 24.03.26

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
GBP	CPI MoM	Feb	0.50%	-0.50%
GBP	CPI YoY	Feb	3.00%	3.00%
GBP	CPI Core YoY	Feb	3.10%	3.10%
GBP	Retail Price Index	Feb	n/a	406.4
GBP	RPI MoM	Feb	n/a	-0.50%
GBP	RPI YoY	Feb	n/a	3.80%
EUR	IFO Business Climate	Mar	86.3	88.6
EUR	IFO Current Assessment	Mar	86	86.7
EUR	IFO Expectations	Mar	87	90.5
USD	MBA Mortgage Applications	Mar 20	n/a	-10.90%
USD	Import Price Index MoM	Feb	n/a	0.20%
USD	Current Account Balance	4Q	n/a	-$226.4b

What we think

Yesterday's PMI data revealed the first signs of the economic damage being caused by the war in the Middle East.

Elevated inflation readings, in particular, led to Central Banks warning of higher interest rates as they struggle to balance an economic slowdown versus potential runaway inflation.

UK Bank of England Chief economist Pill stated “Upside risks to price stability are mounting due to the events in the gulf” and that the bank stands ready to act against inflationary pressures.

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