Currency news

Hotter than expected CPI boosts GBP

Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
17/04/24
  • Fed Powell suggests Fed are prepared to wait longer
  • UK CPI slowing… but not as quickly as expected


Recap

Market moves were fairly subdued yesterday, with geopolitical risks still simmering in the background given the continued threat that Israel will retaliate against the recent strikes from Iran. ECB president Christine Lagarde was on the wires insinuating that a rate cut could be coming imminently, as they continue to monitor disinflation trends.

Fed Powell spoke yesterday evening, suggesting that the Fed will wait longer than anticipated to cut rates in light of recent inflation numbers from the US.

Today

Market rates

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 17.04.24

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 17.04.24

Table - 2024-04-17T082940.078

Data points

Table - 2024-04-17T082942.834

Speeches

  • None today.

Our thoughts

GBP has caught a bid this morning as CPI numbers came in slightly hotter than expected. Whilst the direction of travel for inflation is downwards, March’s readings suggest that it's perhaps not slowing quick enough, and as a result money markets have pushed back when they expect the BoE to cut to September, with a probability factor of 90% - similar to what the markets expect from the Fed. GBP should benefit from this in the short-term.

For the rest of the day we have the final CPI readings from Europe, which will unlikely move the needle for when the ECB will cut interest rates. Should the Fed’s beige book suggest stronger than expected growth in the US, then will likely be perceived as positive for USD.

How we can help

Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 17 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £10bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.

Have a great day.

International payments made simple
Find out more
About the author
Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money

Still have questions?

This is some text inside of a div block.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

This is some text inside of a div block.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

This is some text inside of a div block.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.