Currency markets continue to trade sideways ahead of Friday’s key US inflation data, and the upcoming French/UK elections. US Consumer confidence data released yesterday showed the US consumer remains upbeat, adding to the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rate mantra. Canadian and Australian inflation data came in hotter-than-forecast, reinforcing the argument that the global fight to curb rising prices is far from over.
The possible outlier being Europe, where anaemic growth and slowing inflation prompted ECB’s Rehn to confirm the market’s pricing for 2 rate cuts this year.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 26.06.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 26.06.24
Market volatility continues to decline, as central bank interest rate calls fall in line with current interest rate pricing. All eyes are now firmly on Friday’s US Core PCE data (Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) for evidence of further progress on taming inflation. The euro remains vulnerable ahead of Sunday’s 1st round of voting in the French Elections.
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