Currency news

Inflation numbers are key today

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
30/08/24
    • US grew more than initial estimates
    • EU and US inflation metrics due


    Yesterday's currency recap

    For the second quarter this year, US GDP received an upward revision - from 2.8% to 3% - and jobless claims came in marginally lower than expected at 231,000, resulting in USD gains over the course of the day.

    EUR weakness continued as German CPI numbers came in lower than expected. As a result, GBPEUR carved out a new one-month high.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD -0.32% 1.9379
    GBPCAD -0.20% 1.7747
    GBPCHF 0.44% 1.1159
    GBPDKK 0.22% 8.8682
    GBPEUR 0.22% 1.1890
    GBPJPY 0.27% 191.2380
    GBPNOK -0.12% 13.8422
    GBPNZD -0.38% 2.1047
    GBPSEK 0.20% 13.4821
    GBPUSD -0.13% 1.3170


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 30.08.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 30.08.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR CPI MoM Aug 0.00% 0.00%
    EUR CPI YoY Aug 2.20% 2.60%
    EUR Core CPI YoY Aug 2.80% 2.90%
    USD Personal Income Aug 2.80% 2.80%
    USD Personal Spending Jul 0.20% 0.20%
    USD Core PCE MoM Jul 0.20% 0.20%
    USD Core PCE YoY Jul 2.70% 2.60%

    What we think

    Today's focus zeroes in on inflation metrics from both Europe and the US.

    Yesterday, Spanish and German CPI numbers came in lower than anticipated and it seems that the EU headline numbers might also come in below expectations. This will likely add further pressure on the EUR, which has struggled this week.

    As mentioned earlier this week, given the relative weakness of USD over the last month, demand for it has been picking up. If the core PCE number today indicates that inflation holds steady, we'd expect further gains for USD before heading into the job numbers next week.

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