Currency news

Inflation numbers key today

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
31/05/24
    • US growth gets downgraded
    • Could be a volatile end to the month


    Yesterday's currency recap

    Treasury yields declined yesterday on softer revision of Q1 numbers stateside. GDP came in at 1.3% down from 1.6% from initial estimates, and the core PCE number showed inflation eased further to 3.6%. USD retreated as a result, giving up much of the gains from Wednesday. GBP declined across the board, correlating with a fall in risk appetite with US equities declining.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD -0.20% 1.9178
    GBPCAD -0.10% 1.7410
    GBPCHF -0.73% 1.1516
    GBPDKK -0.08% 8.7658
    GBPEUR -0.08% 1.1752
    GBPJPY -0.30% 199.6660
    GBPNOK -0.33% 13.4073
    GBPNZD 0.12% 2.0799
    GBPSEK -0.45% 13.4963
    GBPUSD 0.32% 1.2743


    *Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 31.05.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 31.05.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR CPI MoM May 0.20% 0.60%
    EUR CPI YoY May 2.50% 2.40%
    EUR Core CPI YoY May 2.70% 2.70%
    CAD GDP MoM Mar 0.00% 0.20%
    CAD GDP YoY Mar 0.70% 0.80%
    CAD GDP QoQ Q1 2.20% 1.00%
    USD Core PCE MoM Apr 0.30% 0.30%
    USD Core PCE YoY Apr 2.80% 2.80%
    USD Personal Income Apr 0.30% 0.50%
    USD Personal Spending Apr 0.30% 0.80%

    Upcoming speeches

    • None today.

    What we think

    Could be a volatile end to the month with the release of inflation numbers from Europe and the US. Today's European numbers will likely have little impact on what the ECB does next week, with markets putting a 98% probability of a rate cut. The numbers will likely have a bigger bearing on what the ECB does in subsequent meetings, and could well determine the outcome of the ECB statement during next week's monetary policy meeting. In the afternoon we focus on the US and the outcome of the core PCE number. A soft number, and we will likely see further USD weakness going into next week's US job numbers.

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    About the author
    Thanim Islam
    Profile
    Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money

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