The next U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, July 15, 2025, at 12:30 UTC. This release will cover data for June 2025.
What is US CPI?
Published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides key insights into inflation by tracking the average change in prices of a broad basket of goods and services over time.
It helps the Federal Reserve assess inflationary pressures and guides decisions on interest rates and monetary policy decisions.
As a broader economic health check, each CPI release will offer valuable information on the health of the U.S. economy, a rising CPI signals inflation, while a falling CPI may indicate deflation.
What is current CPI in the US?
The latest US CPI report, released on June 11, 2025, shows:
- Headline CPI (year-over-year, May 2025): +2.4%
- Month-over-month (seasonally adjusted, May 2025): +0.1%
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +2.8% YoY, with a +0.1% monthly gain
- Key price drivers:
- Food index: +0.3% MoM, +2.9% YoY
- Energy index: −1.0% MoM, −3.5% YoY
- Shelter costs: +0.3% in May; continued as the largest contributor to monthly CPI increases
What is the prediction for the CPI?
A 2.4% annual CPI places headline inflation near the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) target zone of 2%, while a modest 0.1% increase in May indicates fairly stable price pressures. The relatively quiet reading offers the Fed flexibility in its rate decisions—and markets are now leaning toward potential rate cuts later this year.
Core CPI remained at 2.8%, instead of rising to 2.9%, year-on-year. The number once again caused Trump to hit the wires and call on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 100 basis points.
Read more about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions here -When is the next Fed interest rate decision?
What time is CPI data released?
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) on its scheduled day (usually released between the 10th and 13th of each month).
There is typically a one-month lag on US CPI data, with each monthly release reporting on inflation for the previous month. For example, the CPI report released on June 11, 2025, covers price changes that occurred in May 2025. This lag exists because the Bureau of Labor Statistics needs time to collect, verify, and process data from thousands of businesses and service providers across the country. The process includes applying seasonal adjustments and ensuring data accuracy before publication.
Is US inflation going down?
Based on the latest data and expert analysis, U.S. inflation is broadly trending downward, though some signs suggest it may stabilise or tick higher in the near future:
- In May 2025, the headline CPI increased just 0.1% MoM (down from +0.2% in April), and year‑over‑year inflation held at 2.4%, slightly above April's 2.3%.
- Core CPI also rose a modest 0.1% MoM and maintained a 2.8% annual rate, showing no signs of acceleration.
- Analysts note that tariff-driven price pressures have yet to fully feed through, with much of the impact likely delayed until late summer or fall.
Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations (as measured by surveys) are declining: the one‑year‑ahead outlook dropped from 3.6% to 3.2%, reflecting growing optimism.
Overall, inflation has cooled from earlier peaks and remains near the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone of around 2–2.5%. That soft pace gives the Fed more flexibility to consider policy easing later this year, though rising tariffs could introduce new upward pressure in coming months.
Historical US CPI headline inflation data
See below for historical US headline inflation CPI data, showing how headline CPI (12-month percentage change, US Consumer Price Index, all items index, not seasonally adjusted) has changed over time.
Please visit the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics website for more data.
Is CPI bullish or bearish?
Whether the US Consumer Price Index is bullish or bearish depends on the actual inflation data relative to its market expectations, and also how markets interpret it in the context of economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy.
CPI can be bullish when:
- Inflation comes in lower than expected, suggesting the Fed might ease interest rates sooner.
- Slower price growth improves consumer purchasing power and business margins.
- Markets anticipate monetary easing (which tends to support stocks and bonds).
CPI can be bearish when:
- Inflation is hotter than expected, especially core CPI, which pressures the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
- High inflation erodes real incomes and raises borrowing costs.
- Persistent inflation raises fears of stagflation or policy tightening (which usually weighs on equities and bonds).
In general, CPI is generally considered bullish for markets when it comes in lower than expected (as this suggests inflation is cooling and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will ease interest rates) supporting equities, bonds, and other risk assets. However, higher-than-expected CPI is generally seen as bearish, since it raises concerns that the Fed will keep rates elevated or even tighten policy further (which can weigh on market sentiment and asset prices).
What is the CPI in the US now?
The latest US CPI report, released on June 11, 2025, shows that the all items index (headline inflation) rose by 2.4% YoY in May (before seasonal adjustment). However, on a monthly basis, prices increased by a modest 0.1% MoM in May, indicating that overall inflationary pressure remains relatively subdued.
Core CPI (which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories) rose by 2.8% compared to a year earlier, also with a 0.1% monthly increase.
Among the major components, food prices rose by 0.3% month over month and 2.9% year over year, while energy prices fell by 1.0% on the month and 3.5% annually. Shelter costs, a key driver of the index, continued to increase, rising by 0.3% in May, and remained the largest contributor to monthly CPI gains.
With inflation hovering close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and price pressures appearing to stabilise, this latest CPI reading gives policymakers more flexibility. Markets are now increasingly expecting that the Fed may consider interest rate cuts later in the year, given the tame inflation data.
Read more about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions here -When is the next Fed interest rate decision?
What is the CPI year over year?
As of the latest release on June 11, 2025, the US CPI year over year (reflecting price changes from May 2024 to May 2025) is +2.4%.
This headline inflation rate includes all categories, such as food, energy, housing, and transportation. It's slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but still within a range that suggests inflation is relatively stable.
This publication is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or other professional advice from Equals Money PLC or its subsidiaries and affiliates.
It is recommended to seek advice from a financial advisor, expert, or other professional. We do not make any representations, warranties, or guarantees, whether expressed or implied, regarding the accuracy, or completeness of the content in the publication.
