All eyes on US job numbers this week

Market reports
Thanim Islam
  • UK Spring Budget key event for GBP this week
  • ECB likely to take no rate action this week
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USD moves were mixed on Friday on the back of mixed messages from Fed speakers as well as mixed manufacturing PMI numbers. S&P PMI numbers and a hawkish Fed Barkin drove USD to the strongest levels for the week, but then a combination of a dovish Fed Goolsbee and ISM showing manufacturing activity contracted further, saw those gains erased. Overall USD finished the week unchanged from the start of the week and equity markets continued to climb to new highs. Worth noting GBPEUR dropped to a previous support level without being able to push lower.


Market rates

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 04.03.24

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 04.03.24


Data points



  • EUR: ECB Holzmann
  • USD: Fed Harker

Our thoughts

With it being the first week of the month, much of the focus will be on US job numbers across the week with the release of JOLTS, ADP payrolls and Friday's nonfarm payroll and wage numbers. Data to suggest a strong labour market will likely reaffirm that the Fed's first rate cut will happen in June and should continue to support USD. Gains in the equity market will likely continue as well. Fed Powell is also set to testify to Congress on the economy and monetary policy.

UK focus will fall on the Spring budget and what ramifications this could on when the BoE cut rates this year. Pricing remains for the first rate cut to be in August.

The ECB will likely take no action in their interest rate meeting on Thursday and the guidance will likely be around waiting for inflation and wage data across the first quarter before deciding when they will cut rates. Goldman Sachs on Friday pushed their expectation to June this year from April.

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