EUR in trouble?

Market reports
Thanim Islam
  • US data adds to soft landing narrative
  • Euro in trouble on stagflation concerns?


USD closed higher on Friday following better than expected payroll numbers, as well as better manufacturing PMIs from data agency S&P and ISM, as well as the prices paid number for August. The data continues to support the narrative of a ‘soft landing’ in the US. GBPUSD and EURUSD both declined to previous support levels.


Market rates

* Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 04.09.23

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 04.09.23

Data points


  • EUR – ECB Nagel, Lagarde, and Panetta

Our thoughts

Quiet start to the week with the US and Canada closed for bank holidays, and on the margins we have the Sentix investor confidence numbers from Europe, as well as speeches by ECB members Nagel, Lagarde, and Panetta. The EUR has been steadily declining off its July high, with markets focusing on the prospect of stagflation within the eurozone economy. We’ll be listening to ECB speakers throughout the course of the week to gauge further comments on the economy.

As mentioned last week, USD tends to have its best month in September, and Friday's numbers have set the currency up well to start the month. This week's focus will be on a few Fed speakers as well as the ISM services numbers on Friday. A pick up in activity will back the soft landing narrative for the US economy, and should continue to be supportive for the currency.

Chart of the day

With concerns about the eurozone economy arising last week, we saw the EURdrop through its September uptrend support line, suggesting that we could well be near the end of the EUR’s year long bull run. We look towards further comments from the ECB about the economy, and the implication on any additional interest rate hikes this year.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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