The USD staged a comeback on Friday after nonfarm payrolls showed that 339,000 jobs were added in May, surpassing the expected number of 195,000. Wages did slip and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% but nonetheless the big deviation on the payroll print added to the stronger ADP and JOLTs job numbers earlier this week.
* Daily move - against G10 rates at 5:00pm, 04.06.23
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 5:00pm, 04.06.23
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US treasury yields have continued to rise following on from Friday’s job numbers, causing USD to be in demand and thus GBPUSD and EURUSD to be lower on the open. Services PMI numbers from the UK, EU, and US will be in focus today, and to see continued gains on the USD we’ll need to see a surprise upside on services numbers, and for continued weakness on the EUR, we’ll need to see a miss on the services numbers. Also out today will be investor confidence from Europe and ECB members Lagarde and Nagel will be speaking.
Is the bubble bursting in Europe? Rising interest rates and the disappointment in the China re-opening story has slowly deteriorated confidence in Europe and with the ECB continuing to push for higher interest rates - will confidence continue to fall? Today’s figure is expected to show another drop from -13.1 to -15.1
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