Markets have started the week a tad quieter, with equities finishing marginally higher and treasury yields slightly lower. GBP clawed back some of the losses following Friday's disappointing retail sales number, and the USD retreated on the back of the lower treasury yields. GBPEUR had another attempt to reach the December highs.
According to a report by Axios, Israel has proposed a 2-month ceasefire in the fighting in Gaza as part of a deal that will include the release of all hostages. This may ease some of the geopolitical risk seen in markets in recent weeks.
* Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 23.01.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 23.01.24
Equities in China all finished higher overnight on speculation that Chinese authorities are considering a US$278 billion rescue package to stabilise the stock markets, and as a result equity futures are all pointing to another day of gains. As a result, USD is weaker to start the day. Price action for the rest of the day should be like what we saw yesterday, with FX moves taking a lead from risk appetite in markets as well as treasury yields.
In other news, The Bank of Japan dropped further hints that they may lift interest rates out of negative territory at some point this year, although they have not alluded to when that may be. Current market pricing suggests a 35% chance this may happen in April.
Interest rate differentials continue to support GBPEUR, with the BoE priced to cut interest rates less than the ECB. Since the turn of the year, the pair has pushed 1.65% higher, with another attempt to reach the highs seen in December. A push through this level then opens up the possibility of hitting the highs seen last summer.
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