Currency news

Weak US employment data stoke recession fears

Chief Market Strategist at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
05/08/24
    • GBP dips on risk off flows & USD slides on weak data
    • EUR attracts safe-haven inflows


    Currency recap

    USD eased and bond yields tumbled on Friday following the latest monthly US employment report. The data showed both the unemployment rate rising and less job creation than forecast, stoking fears of an imminent US recession.

    Interest rate markets were quick to react with steep falls across the curve, prompting multiple Tier 1 Investment banks to now call for two consecutive 50bps rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meetings, and over 1.40% of easing by year-end.

    The disappointing US employment report came hot on the heels of weak PMI data, further heightening fears of a US recession. Global equity markets were hit hard, instigating huge safe-haven flows into JPY, CHF and EUR. The panic selling has continued into the start of this week with the Japanese equity market closing down by a whopping 12% and the US Nasdaq expected to open over 5% lower.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 1.25% 1.9915
    GBPCAD -0.03% 1.7713
    GBPCHF -1.96% 1.0745
    GBPDKK -0.63% 8.7052
    GBPEUR -0.62% 1.1661
    GBPJPY -3.65% 180.2000
    GBPNOK 0.87% 14.1425
    GBPNZD 0.90% 2.1661
    GBPSEK 0.10% 13.5750
    GBPUSD -0.71% 1.2715


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 05.08.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 05.08.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR HCOB Services PMI (Final) Jul 52.0 52.8
    EUR HCOB Composite PMI (Final) Jul 50.1 50.9
    GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Final) Jul 52.4 52.1
    GBP S&P Global Composite PMI (Final) Jul 52.7 52.3
    USD S&P Global Services PMI (Final) Jul 55.00 54.80
    USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Final) Jul 56.00 55.30
    USD ISM Services PMI Jul 51.00 48.80

    Upcoming speeches

    • USD – Fed’s Daly

    What we think

    Weaker macro-economic data and warnings of an imminent Hezbollah/Hamas attack on Israel have put markets on edge. News out over the weekend that Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway has dramatically reduced its stock holdings is further adding to the bearish sentiment as we start the new week.

    Adding to the market's woes, the rise in the US unemployment rate has triggered one of the most accurate recession predictors with 100% success rate going back to 1970, known as the “Sahm Rule”.

    This states a recession is imminent when the current three-month moving average in the unemployment rate exceeds the lowest three-month moving average over the past year by half a percentage point or more. The current Sahm Rule reading is 0.53%, according to Fed data, having surged from 0.43% in June.

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