Currency news

USD on the ropes

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
22/08/24
    • US payrolls revised lower and dovish Fed minutes pressures USD
    • PMI numbers and EU wage numbers in focus today


    Yesterday's currency recap

    USD lost even more ground yesterday following downward revisions to US payroll numbers. A dovish Fed meeting showed that some members of the Fed considered rate cuts in July. GBPUSD tested the highs last seen in July 2023 and EURUSD hit 13-month highs.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 0.33% 1.9388
    GBPCAD 0.10% 1.7769
    GBPCHF 0.00% 1.1131
    GBPDKK 0.20% 8.7569
    GBPEUR 0.20% 1.1733
    GBPJPY 0.23% 189.7580
    GBPNOK 0.40% 13.7352
    GBPNZD 0.23% 2.1231
    GBPSEK 0.27% 13.3343
    GBPUSD 0.35% 1.3079


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 22.08.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 22.08.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR Manufacturing PMI Aug Prelim 45.80 45.80
    EUR Services PMI Aug Prelim 51.70 51.90
    EUR Composite PMI Aug Prelim 50.10 50.20
    EUR ECB Negotiated Wages Indicator Q2 - -
    GBP Manufacturing PMI Aug Prelim 52.20 52.10
    GBP Services PMI Aug Prelim 52.80 52.50
    GBP Composite PMI Aug Prelim 53.00 52.80
    USD Manufacturing PMI Aug Prelim 49.50 49.60
    USD Services PMI Aug Prelim 54.00 55.00
    USD Composite PMI Aug Prelim 53.20 54.30
    USD Initial Jobless Claims Aug 17 232,000 227,000

    What we think

    Over the course of last night, USD has recovered some of the ground lost as focus now falls onto Fed Powell's speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Before then, we have August PMI numbers from Europe, UK and the US, as well as the weekly jobless claims numbers stateside. For EUR, focus will also fall on the Q2 negotiated wage  numbers and the implications on future interest rate movements from Europe. Sticky wages and markets may indicate less rate cuts than currently expected, which will benefit the EUR. Given the respective highs on GBPUSD and EURUSD, there has been a high level of interest across the client base in taking advantage of current levels and evaluating hedging requirements for the remainder of the year. The Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow remains a risk for USD.

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