Currency news

Data-heavy week ahead for the US

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
30/09/24
    • Following a lower UK GDP number this morning, German CPI is key today
    • US data takes precedence


    Currency recap

    US core PCE came in marginally lower than expected month-on-month, once again causing GBPUSD and EURUSD to test the highs seen earlier on in the week. However the gains were limited suggesting strong resistance at these levels. It seems markets are reluctant to chase new highs as we head into the end of Q3.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD -0.40% 1.9376
    GBPCAD 0.12% 1.8083
    GBPCHF -0.52% 1.1292
    GBPDKK 0.02% 8.9515
    GBPEUR 0.02% 1.2006
    GBPJPY -1.57% 191.1870
    GBPNOK -0.33% 14.0791
    GBPNZD -0.35% 2.1121
    GBPSEK -0.22% 13.5399
    GBPUSD -0.13% 1.3395


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 30.09.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 30.09.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR CPI MoM Sep 0.10% -0.10%
    EUR CPI YoY Sep 1.70% 1.90%

    What we think

    Following French and Spanish CPI numbers coming in lower on Friday, focus today falls on German CPI numbers. If the German CPI follows the trend, the odds of another rate cut by the ECB in October will be bolstered. Currently markets rate the chances of a 0.25% rate cut at 80%.

    Final revisions of GDP for Q2 came in lower than expected at 0.5% versus the projected estimate of 0.6%. Nonetheless, GBP remains relatively strong at the start of the week.

    US data will feature heavily over the week ahead, with the usual series of job numbers, culminating in nonfarm payroll numbers, coming out on Friday. Additionally, this week brings the release of the ISM manufacturing and services indices. Markets are forecasting 146,000 job additions in September, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to remain at 3.8%. If we see any soft numbers in the job sector we would expect USD to be weaker.

    We specialise in currency guidance

    Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making an international payment. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.

    Have a great day.

    International payments made simple
    Find out more

    Still have questions?

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.