Currency markets traded in a tight range yesterday, with USD managing to eke out further gains, driving the currency's basket to a 2-month high. Rising US Bond yields are helping to underpin the currency, with markets now quickly trimming back interest rate cut projections for this year and the next. The underlying strength of the US economy continues to confound most economic forecasters.
GDP remains near its lowest point against USD for the month, as we anticipate today's release of unemployment figures and tomorrow's crucial inflation report, which is projected to reveal a dip in the CPI below the Bank of England's 2% benchmark.
UK unemployment data released this morning showed a continuing decline in the unemployment rate and wage growth. This will be of some comfort to the UK monetary policy committee ahead of next month’s interest rate meeting where markets are pricing an 85% of a 0.25% rate cut.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 15.10.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 15.10.24
US equities rose to yet another all-time high yesterday after news that Israel doesn't intend to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, sending Oil prices markedly lower. Elsewhere, rumours surrounding the upcoming UK budget continue. Chancellor Rachel Reeves strongly hinted that the new Labor Government will increase employer national insurance contributions, whilst Prime Minister Starmer pushed back on talk of Capital Gains being increased to 39%.
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