Currency news

USD demand continues

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
04/09/24
    • Risk sentiment drops resulting in USD gains
    • Key highlights are JOLTS and Bank of Canada's anticipated rate decision


    Yesterday's currency recap

    USD gains held steady for the 5th consecutive day following the afternoons ISM manufacturing report showing the sector has continued to contract.

    Stocks took a hit as investor confidence waned, dragging the GBP down alongside them. JPY was the winner of the day after Governor Ueda reiterated that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices perform in line with expectations.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 0.72% 1.9498
    GBPCAD 0.03% 1.7745
    GBPCHF -0.47% 1.1143
    GBPDKK -0.05% 8.8522
    GBPEUR -0.05% 1.1867
    GBPJPY -1.00% 191.1200
    GBPNOK 0.68% 14.0112
    GBPNZD 0.37% 2.1173
    GBPSEK 0.10% 13.5065
    GBPUSD -0.30% 1.3105


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 04.09.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 04.09.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR Services PMI Aug Final 53.30 53.30
    EUR Composite PMI Aug Final 51.20 51.20
    GBP Services PMI Aug Final 53.30 53.30
    GBP Composite PMI Aug Final 53.40 53.40
    CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision Sept 4.25% 4.50%
    USD JOLTS Job Openings Jul 8,100,000.00 8,184,000.00

    What we think

    Final EU and UK PMI numbers are unlikely to cause market moves, therefore the focus is on JOLTS numbers and Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement. Many markets are expecting a rate cut of 0.25% as GBPCAD continues to trade at its most favourable levels since April 2021.

    Future guidance will be key for CAD. Any shift in the projected 1.5% rate cuts by July next year will significantly influence whether CAD’s downward trend persists, or if we see profit jumps on the pair.

    The JOLTS numbers are expected to indicate a still cooling labour market caused by a decreasing demand and a reduced turnover as a result of dwindling confidence in job prospects. Based on this, we could see yesterday's moves repeat today.

    It is worth reminding readers again that USD tends to have its best performing month in September.

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