Currency news

Big week for risk and the US dollar

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
02/09/24
    • US Job numbers key for September direction


    Currency recap

    USD gains continued into the month's end with both GBPUSD and EURUSD hitting a one-week low. US core CPE numbers came in broadly in-line with expectations, as did EU CPI numbers earlier in the day, solidifying the likelihood of a 0.25% rate cut by the ECB in September.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 0.30% 1.9424
    GBPCAD -0.12% 1.7733
    GBPCHF -0.02% 1.1156
    GBPDKK -0.08% 8.8599
    GBPEUR -0.08% 1.1878
    GBPJPY 0.32% 191.5660
    GBPNOK 0.82% 13.9509
    GBPNZD 0.03% 2.1047
    GBPSEK 0.20% 13.4924
    GBPUSD -0.24% 1.3137


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 02.09.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 02.09.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR Manufacturing PMI Aug Final 45.60 45.60
    GBP Manufacturing PMI Aug Final 52.50 52.50

    What we think

    After last month's disappointing numbers stoked fears of a possible US recession, this week, the main focus is on US job numbers. JOLTS job openings and ADP payroll numbers will be out during the week culminating with the nonfarm payroll print on Friday. Markets are expecting 160,000 jobs to be added in August with the unemployment rate easing to 4.2%.

    As mentioned last week, September has historically been a challenging month for equities and overall risk appetites. This risk-averse sentiment has traditionally favoured USD leading to its most robust performance for the year. This week's job numbers could significantly influence market trends for the remainder of the month.

    Today the US celebrates Labor Day, and in the absence of volatility catalysts, it will likely be a quiet start to the week.

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