Currency news

Weaker JOLTS but markets waiting for Friday

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
05/09/24
    • Data continues to suggest the US labour market is slowing
    • Bank of Canada cuts rates again


    Yesterday's currency recap

    JOLTS job opening numbers came in lower than expected yesterday, illustrating a cooling job market. Initial market reaction saw stocks drop and USD weaken as markets raised odds of seeing a 0.50% rate cut this month.

    However, the move didn’t really continue, with both equities and USD reversing the losses shortly after. One reason for this was attributed to the low response rate in the survey meaning that perhaps it didn’t give a true reflection of the overall labour market. We shall wait to see what Friday's numbers bring.

    The Bank of Canada cut rates by 0.25%, as was widely expected, and their forward guidance continues to suggest more rate cuts are likely to come. Market projections that by the July 2025 meeting, interest rates will be 3% vs the current rate of 4.25%.

    The GBPCAD exchange rate remained stable throughout the day.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 0.06% 1.9553
    GBPCAD -0.03% 1.7763
    GBPCHF -0.08% 1.1142
    GBPDKK -0.14% 8.8464
    GBPEUR -0.14% 1.1858
    GBPJPY -0.63% 189.5790
    GBPNOK -0.30% 13.9744
    GBPNZD 0.03% 2.1202
    GBPSEK -0.10% 13.5024
    GBPUSD 0.18% 1.3138


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 05.09.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 05.09.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    USD ADP Payrolls Aug 145,000 122,000
    USD Initial Jobless Claims Aug 31 230,000 231,000
    USD ISM Services Aug 51.20 51.40

    What we think

    Looking at yesterday's price action, markets feel very indecisive at the moment.  Whilst we have some data out today, it seems that markets are waiting for Friday's job numbers to stir in a clearer direction.

    The sentiment across our desk seems to be that a second consecutive month of poor jobs numbers will lead to a deterioration of market confidence.

    We specialise in currency guidance

    Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making global payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.

    Have a great day.

    International payments made simple
    Find out more

    Still have questions?

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.