Currency news / November 25, 2025

GBP steadies ahead of the Autumn Budget

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamNovember 25, 2025

Market snapshot:

Markets continue to relax on Fed rate cut talks
Pessimism on GBP priced in

Yesterday's currency recap

Sluggish day in the FX markets as equities rallied higher, rebounding from last week's lows.

Fed member Daly echoed fellow Fed members by backing calls for a December rate cut due to concerns about the job market.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.07%	2.0285
GBPCAD	0.05%	1.8486
GBPCHF	-0.04%	1.0586
GBPDKK	-0.08%	8.4908
GBPEUR	-0.08%	1.137
GBPJPY	0.34%	205.555
GBPNOK	-0.16%	13.4082
GBPNZD	0.09%	2.3356
GBPSEK	0.01%	12.5138
GBPUSD	0.04%	1.3103

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 25.11.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 25.11.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	ADP Weekly Employment
USD	Retail Sales MoM	Sep	0.40%	0.60%
USD	Retail Sales YoY	Sep	0.30%	0.30%
USD	PPI MoM	Sep	0.30%	-0.10%
USD	PPI YoY	Sep	2.60%	2.60%
USD	Consumer Confidence	Nov	93.30	94.60

Today's speeches

EUR: ECB Villeroy, Escriva, Makhlouf

What we think

US September retail sales are expected to soften to 0.4% MoM, with the control group barely rising (0.3%), highlighting pressure on lower-income consumers. PPI is released simultaneously and should mirror the softer CPI trend, with key PCE components – medical services, portfolio fees and airfares – in focus. Core PCE is tracking near 0.21% MoM. Consumer confidence is seen to be edging lower.

With the Autumn Budget just a day away, sterling has been gaining momentum from recent lows, as market participants adjust their positions in anticipation of the statement and lock in gains after the earlier period of GBP weakness.

Perhaps much of the fiscal pessimism is already priced into GBP, meaning Reeves only needs to avoid major missteps on Wednesday for GBP to stabilise or even see a relief rally. Tighter fiscal policy could help reduce the UK’s risk premium, and with UK yields still high amongst its peers, restoring credibility would give GBP room to recover.

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