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Sluggish day in the FX markets as equities rallied higher, rebounding from last week's lows.
Fed member Daly echoed fellow Fed members by backing calls for a December rate cut due to concerns about the job market.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 25.11.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 25.11.25
US September retail sales are expected to soften to 0.4% MoM, with the control group barely rising (0.3%), highlighting pressure on lower-income consumers. PPI is released simultaneously and should mirror the softer CPI trend, with key PCE components – medical services, portfolio fees and airfares – in focus. Core PCE is tracking near 0.21% MoM. Consumer confidence is seen to be edging lower.
With the Autumn Budget just a day away, sterling has been gaining momentum from recent lows, as market participants adjust their positions in anticipation of the statement and lock in gains after the earlier period of GBP weakness.
Perhaps much of the fiscal pessimism is already priced into GBP, meaning Reeves only needs to avoid major missteps on Wednesday for GBP to stabilise or even see a relief rally. Tighter fiscal policy could help reduce the UK’s risk premium, and with UK yields still high amongst its peers, restoring credibility would give GBP room to recover.
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