• Trump fails to reach agreement
Markets remained very cautious over shutdown fears during yesterday's European session, seeing a marginally weaker USD as a result. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that they will not release any data during a potential government shutdown.
Speaking at the Labour party conference in Liverpool, Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned of “harsh global headwinds” hitting the UK economy and also failed to dispel fears of major tax rises at the next budget.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 BST, 30.09.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 BST, 30.09.25
USD is on the back foot this morning after President Trump failed to reach an agreement over spending plans raising the possibility that the US government will shutdown tomorrow. US JOLTS in the afternoon and the bigger move on USD will likely be an upside surprise on the numbers considering how much market have already shown concern about the job market and rate traders are already pricing in 100bp worth of cuts over the next 12 months in the US.
Could see some EUR volatility with the release of Septembers CPI numbers from Germany considering the market seems to be prepared for no more rate cuts by the ECB over the next 12 months. A number inline or higher will back this call and likely to have nil effet on EUR but anything to suggest inflation is dropping should cause a stir and we could see GBPEUR bounce off current lows.
A host of central banker speakers today as well as we enter the last day of the month and quarter.
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