Currency news / September 30, 2025

Government shutdown on the horizon

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamSeptember 30, 2025

• Trump fails to reach agreement

Yesterday's currency recap

Markets remained very cautious over shutdown fears during yesterday's European session, seeing a marginally weaker USD as a result. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that they will not release any data during a potential government shutdown.

Speaking at the Labour party conference in Liverpool, Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned of “harsh global headwinds” hitting the UK economy and also failed to dispel fears of major tax rises at the next budget.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.02%	2.0485
GBPCAD	-0.58%	1.8692
GBPCHF	-0.12%	1.0740
GBPDKK	-0.27%	8.5851
GBPEUR	-0.26%	1.1501
GBPJPY	0.31%	200.55
GBPNOK	0.04%	13.399
GBPNZD	0.75%	2.305
GBPSEK	0.08%	12.6827
GBPUSD	-0.84%	1.3547

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 BST, 30.09.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 BST, 30.09.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence	Sep	-19	-17
JPY	Natl CPI YoY	Aug	2.80%	3.10%
JPY	Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY	Aug	2.70%	3.10%
GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing	Aug	13.0b	1.1b
GBP	Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM	Aug	0.40%	0.60%
GBP	Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY	Aug	0.60%	1.10%
GBP	Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM	Aug	0.70%	0.50%
GBP	Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY	Aug	1.00%	1.30%
CAD	Retail Sales MoM	Jul	0.00%	1.50%
CAD	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	Jul	--	1.90%
JPY	BOJ Target Rate	19-Sep	0.50%	0.50%

Speeches

GBP: BoE Mann, Breedan and PM Keir Starmer
EUR: ECB Lagarde, Rehn
USD: Goolsbee, Collins,Trump

What we think

USD is on the back foot this morning after President Trump failed to reach an agreement over spending plans raising the possibility that the US government will shutdown tomorrow. US JOLTS in the afternoon and the bigger move on USD will likely be an upside surprise on the numbers considering how much market have already shown concern about the job market and rate traders are already pricing in 100bp worth of cuts over the next 12 months in the US.

Could see some EUR volatility with the release of Septembers CPI numbers from Germany considering the market seems to be prepared for no more rate cuts by the ECB over the next 12 months. A number inline or higher will back this call and likely to have nil effet on EUR but anything to suggest inflation is dropping should cause a stir and we could see GBPEUR bounce off current lows.

A host of central banker speakers today as well as we enter the last day of the month and quarter.

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