Market moves were kept in check yesterday, with trading remaining in respective ranges. Year‑on‑year PPI surprised to the upside at 3%, yet the data did little to shift market expectations around the number of Fed cuts priced-in for this year. Retail sales jumped more than expected in November compared to October, suggesting resilient consumer demand.
BoE's Taylor spoke yesterday, suggesting that trade diversion from China, caused by US tariffs, is lowering inflation and could help return CPI to the 2% target by mid 2026. Citing cooling wages, easing food inflation and fading tax effects, the dovish policymaker argued rates should continue to move lower and policy could normalise toward neutral sooner than previously expected. No market impact however but adds to our comments yesterday on recent GBP supporting being at risk.
Earlier in the day, China’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus could prove to be negative for the EUR as excess low-cost exports diverted from the US export deflation and intensify competition for Europe. Combined with weaker Chinese demand, tariff pressures, and a strong EUR reducing competitiveness, this raises growth and inflation headwinds for the euro area, increasing dovish risks for the ECB and downside risks for the currency.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 15.01.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 15.01.26
UK GDP beat expectations in November, a clear positive for growth despite ongoing budget-related uncertainty.
UK data has tended to surprise to the upside early in the year, and easing inflation has given the BOE scope to cut rates without significant economic damage. GBP remains supported for now. Next week’s job market and CPI data will be key for refining when the next rate cut will be. Current market pricing suggests June of this year so should that be bought forward then GBP could give up some of the early year gains.
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