Currency news / December 1, 2025

GBP finds resistance

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamDecember 1, 2025

Market snapshot:

Failure to break key levels could pile on pressure
EU inflation due this week

Yesterday's currency recap

Germany’s inflation jumped to 2.6% in November – a nine-month high – reminding the ECB that price risks persist, ahead of its meeting on the 18th December. The rise was likely driven by holiday and fuel costs, and economists still see a broader disinflation trend continuing into 2025–26. Earlier in the day French inflation dropped more than expected.

USD held steady over Friday but suffered its worst week in four months. Holiday-thinned liquidity and a CME outage kept trading subdued. CAD was the standout performer after stronger-than-expected GDP.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.10%	2.0183
GBPCAD	-0.13%	1.8487
GBPCHF	-0.20%	1.0613
GBPDKK	-0.26%	8.4988
GBPEUR	-0.26%	1.1379
GBPJPY	-0.63%	205.324
GBPNOK	-0.20%	13.3841
GBPNZD	-0.13%	2.3048
GBPSEK	-0.18%	12.4803
GBPUSD	-0.10%	1.3223

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 01.12.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 01.12.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	Nov	49.00	48.70
USD	ISM Prices Paid	Nov	57.00	58.00
USD	ISM Employment	Nov	46.00

What we think

The latest Beige Book highlighted persistent softness in the US job market – a central indicator for Chair Powell. This appears to be the primary catalyst guiding the Fed toward a 25 bp rate cut at their upcoming 10th December meeting.

This week's ISM surveys may be mixed, but they are not being considered as factors driving the Fed’s monetary policy. The important data points are now outdated due to the shutdown, with some October releases (like CPI) missing entirely. Private hard data is noisy: layoffs may spike and weekly ADP could show weaker hiring; while core PCE for September has likely held at around 2.9%. USD trading is expected to be mixed without any clear drivers.

Euro-area inflation is expected to hold just above 2% in November before easing again in December – a trend that could push the ECB toward rate cuts next year despite its current reluctance. Wage growth likely slowed further in Q3. In Switzerland, CPI should remain at 0.1% YoY.

The UK calendar is looking light as well, and with GBP struggling to push key resistance levels, we could well see sterling come under pressure, with market perhaps repositioning themselves to weaken the currency.

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