Currency news / October 3, 2025

Dollar finds a bid on alternative job data

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamOctober 3, 2025

Market snapshot:

Revelio flag a 65k gain September payrolls

Yesterday's currency recap

USD firmed up Thursday as yields spiked on alternative labour data. Revelio Labs flagged a 60,000 gain in September payrolls, clashing with ADP’s weak print and beating consensus. With official NFPs sidelined by the shutdown, the market’s leaning on any proxy it can find — and a firmer jobs signalled less concern for the job market.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.05%	2.0369
GBPCAD	-0.17%	1.8739
GBPCHF	-0.17%	1.0717
GBPDKK	-0.12%	8.5609
GBPEUR	-0.12%	1.1465
GBPJPY	-0.28%	197.68
GBPNOK	0.50%	13.4348
GBPNZD	-0.34%	2.3085
GBPSEK	0.18%	12.6546
GBPUSD	-0.51%	1.3402

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 BST, 03.10.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 BST, 03.10.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	ISM Services	Sep	51.70	52.00
USD	ISM Prices Paid	Sep	68.00	69.20
USD	ISM New Orders	Sep	54.00	56.00
USD	ISM Employment	Sep	46.00	46.50

Speeches

EUR: ECB Villeroy, Lagarde, Schnabel
GBP: BoE Bailey
USD: Fed Williams, Goolsbee, Miran And Logan

What we think

Following on from yesterday's price action, the employment component of today's ISM numbers could create some volatility as markets continue to take cues from alternative data sources. A pick up here and we should see a firmer USD once again.

We also have a host of central bank speakers, including our own Governor Bailey speaking in the afternoon.

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