Dollar finds a bid on alternative job data

• Revelio flag a 65k gain September payrolls

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Yesterday's currency recap

USD firmed up Thursday as yields spiked on alternative labour data. Revelio Labs flagged a 60,000 gain in September payrolls, clashing with ADP’s weak print and beating consensus. With official NFPs sidelined by the shutdown, the market’s leaning on any proxy it can find — and a firmer jobs signalled less concern for the job market.

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Today's GBP rates

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*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 BST, 03.10.25

** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 BST, 03.10.25

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Key data points

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Speeches

• EUR: ECB Villeroy, Lagarde, Schnabel
• GBP: BoE Bailey
• USD: Fed Williams, Goolsbee, Miran And Logan

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What we think

Following on from yesterday's price action, the employment component of today's ISM numbers could create some volatility as markets continue to take cues from alternative data sources. A pick up here and we should see a firmer USD once again.

We also have a host of central bank speakers, including our own Governor Bailey speaking in the afternoon.

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Have a great day.

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