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USD firmed up Thursday as yields spiked on alternative labour data. Revelio Labs flagged a 60,000 gain in September payrolls, clashing with ADP’s weak print and beating consensus. With official NFPs sidelined by the shutdown, the market’s leaning on any proxy it can find — and a firmer jobs signalled less concern for the job market.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 BST, 03.10.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 BST, 03.10.25
Following on from yesterday's price action, the employment component of today's ISM numbers could create some volatility as markets continue to take cues from alternative data sources. A pick up here and we should see a firmer USD once again.
We also have a host of central bank speakers, including our own Governor Bailey speaking in the afternoon.
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