Currency news

Political instability to topple EUR?

Head of FX Analysis
-
3
min read
Published:
December 5, 2025
  • Pension bill could topple coalition 


Yesterday's currency recap

More USD weakness yesterday after Revelio Labs revealed the US lost 9,000 nonfarm jobs in November ,with the October reading revised even lower to losses of 15,500 from 9,100. GBPUSD hit the October 28th highs as a result.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
GBPAUD -0.10% 2.0208
GBPCAD 0.10% 1.8642
GBPCHF 0.30% 1.0710
GBPDKK 0.20% 8.5625
GBPEUR 0.20% 1.1464
GBPJPY -0.17% 206.981
GBPNOK 0.33% 13.4769
GBPNZD 0.14% 2.3163
GBPSEK 0.45% 12.5694
GBPUSD 0.16% 1.3375


*Daily move - against
G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 05.12.25

** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 05.12.25

Key data points

Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
USD Core PCE MoM Sep 0.20% 0.20%
USD Core PCE YoY Sep 2.80% 2.90%
EUR GDP QoQ 3Q Third 0.20% 0.20%
EUR GDP YoY 3Q Third 1.40% 1.40%

What we think

Core PCE numbers are out in the afternoon, but impact could be muted given the numbers are from September – so we will need to see a big deviation to have a meaningful impact on USD.

Also on the agenda today are final GDP numbers from the Eurozone. Germany’s lower house is set to vote on a pension bill that could topple Chancellor Merz’s coalition with the SPD, should the vote fail. This could potentially trigger new elections and cause political instability.

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