Currency news / October 1, 2025

US Government auto reply: Sorry we are OFF

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamOctober 1, 2025

• Question now is how long will it last

Yesterday's currency recap

USD decline continued yesterday despite JOLTS job openings for August coming in better than expected and the layoff number lower than forecast. Market concerns remained around the possibility of the US government going into shutdown, which in turn will delay the release of jobs data later in the week.

Higher CPI numbers from Germany backed the current market pricing of no rate cuts expected by the ECB. Today we've got CPI numbers from the EU.

BoE member Sarah Breeden sent out a dovish message to markets warning that leaving interest rates high for too long carries its own risks to the economy

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.44%	2.0426
GBPCAD	0.20%	1.8682
GBPCHF	0.01%	1.0705
GBPDKK	0.05%	8.5479
GBPEUR	0.05%	1.1452
GBPJPY	-0.32%	199.567
GBPNOK	0.11%	13.4024
GBPNZD	-0.29%	2.3221
GBPSEK	0.01%	12.6532
GBPUSD	0.06%	1.3431

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 BST, 01.10.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 BST, 01.10.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	CPI MoM	Sep	0.10%	0.10%
EUR	CPI YoY	Sep	2.20%	2.00%
EUR	Core CPI YoY	Sep	2.30%	2.30%
USD	ISM Manufacturing	Sep	49.00	48.70
USD	ISM Employment	Sep		43.80
USD	ISM Prices Paid	Sep	62.90	63.70
USD	ADP Payrolls	Sep	51,000.00	54,000.00

What we think

With no last minute deal materialising, the US government shutdown is now in effect. The question now is how long will the shutdown last.It stands to reason that a prolonged shutdown could contribute to a softer US dollar. In the absence of Friday’s payroll data, today’s focus may shift to the ISM manufacturing release and the ADP payroll figures for further market direction.

Attention will turn to the release of EU CPI figures in the morning, which are expected to set the tone for early market movements. We anticipate developments to mirror those seen yesterday, with German CPI data serving as the primary reference point.

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