Currency news / February 12, 2026

US jobs lift dollar

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamFebruary 12, 2026

Market snapshot:

Dollar bounces back on strong jobs report
UK GDP disappoints

Yesterday's currency recap

USD erased early losses after an unexpectedly strong US jobs report, rising for the first time in four sessions, as markets pushed back expectations of the Fed’s next rate cut from June to July. US payrolls increased 130,000, the most in over a year; while the unemployment rate fell, signalling job market stability. The USD Spot Index rose 0.3% post-report, reversing an earlier 0.4% drop in European hours.

AUD continued to put on gains following RBA Deputy Governor Hauser’s warning that inflation remains too high.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.62%	1.9162
GBPCAD	0.30%	1.8543
GBPCHF	0.43%	1.0523
GBPDKK	0.23%	8.5886
GBPEUR	0.23%	1.1495
GBPJPY	-0.68%	209.196
GBPNOK	-0.45%	12.9313
GBPNZD	-0.10%	2.2549
GBPSEK	0.10%	12.1398
GBPUSD	0.08%	1.3654

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 17:00 GMT, 11.02.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 17:00 GMT, 11.02.26

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	Feb 7	224,000	231,000

What we think

Yesterday's strong US payrolls reinforced that the job market remains resilient, supporting USD and pushing back on expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Despite early weakness, the USD rebounded against most G-10 peers, while EURUSD and GBPUSD showed measured declines, reflecting cautious positioning and lingering market sensitivity to US data.

UK GDP came in lower than expected this morning at 0.1% for Q4. The modest move in GBP was only slightly above its average GDP-day reaction over the past year, highlighting how little weight markets place on backward-looking growth data. Attention now shifts to next week’s CPI print, the final inflation reading before the BoE’s March meeting. With around 18bps of easing priced, inflation is likely to have a far greater impact on rate expectations – and GBP – than today’s GDP miss.

Looking ahead, today's initial jobless claims will be closely watched for continued signs of job market trends following the strong payrolls, while Friday’s US CPI will be key for gauging inflation momentum and shaping expectations for Fed policy later this year. These events are likely to dictate near-term USD direction and broader G-10 FX flows.

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