USD slipped for the sixth time in seven days as markets assessed the US economic outlook post-shutdown and Fed rate expectations. Broad dollar weakness supported risk-sensitive currencies such as EUR and GBP, which recovered following that disappointing GDP number earlier in the morning.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett indicated that the September nonfarm payrolls report could be released as early as next week. He also noted that the October jobs report is likely to include only payroll data, omitting the unemployment rate. Given the limitations of the October release, the September print may provide a more reliable signal of job market conditions, as October’s data was artificially suppressed due to the government shutdown.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 14.11.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 14.11.25
GBP weakened across the G10 after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may drop planned income-tax hikes and other levy increases in the upcoming Budget. Markets took the rethink as a signal that the government may struggle to plug the £35bn fiscal gap, raising fresh concerns over growth and gilt financing. If markets start to demand a higher risk premium, gilt yields could widen again. This would risk a further downward move for GBP.
Interestingly USD remains weak this morning despite calls by Fed member Kashkari, saying he doesn't support the latest rate cut and joins Beth Hammack in indicating they weren’t sold on another reduction in December. Markets reduced the odds of a 25bp cut in December from 65% to 50%.
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