GBP was largely unchanged yesterday, following Wednesday's post budget relief rally, with traders repositioning themselves and looking for fresh conviction on putting new positions.
The latest ECB meeting account reinforces that rates will stay on hold for now, but the next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike. While the euro-area economy has held up despite higher US tariffs, policymakers noted the full impact on exports and manufacturing hasn’t yet filtered through. The minutes also emphasised that further easing would be warranted if downside risks build, or if inflation continues to undershoot the target
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 28.11.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 28.11.25
European markets opened to unexpected disruption this morning, as a cooling failure at CyrusOne data centres led to a significant CME outage, suspending US futures and options trading across equities, interest rates, FX, and commodities from 3am onwards. With liquidity already thin due to the hangover from Thanksgiving, markets are struggling to gauge direction without futures as reference. The disruption risks amplifying intraday volatility and market spreads.
Inflation numbers from France this morning have come in lower than expected, putting some pressure on the EUR this morning. Later today, we have Germany's numbers expected to show inflation dropping in September as well. The full EU numbers will be out next Tuesday. GBP is marginally weaker today but still trading higher than pre-budget levels.
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