Weakening job market opens door for rate cuts

Yesterday's currency recap

USD edged slightly higher in choppy trade, reversing earlier losses as reports suggested the US government was nearing a deal to end its record shutdown. Improved risk appetite saw JPY lead G10 losses, while high-beta currencies like AUD and NZD gained. Fed officials struck a mixed tone – St. Louis’ Musalem warned against deeper cuts, while San Francisco’s Daly cautioned against keeping rates too high.

Today's GBP rates

What we think

The 41-day US government shutdown appears close to ending after the Senate approved a temporary funding bill. The House is expected to vote on the measure as early as tomorrow, paving the way for President Trump’s signature and a short-term reopening of the government.

UK employment figures underwhelmed this morning, with payrolls shrinking by 32,000 over the month – substantially surpassing the anticipated 3,000 decline. The previous months numbers were revised lower and the unemployment rate rose to 5%, a post pandemic high. Markets have increased the odds of a rate cut to 84% in December. GBP is weaker across the board as a result.

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