Currency news / December 10, 2025

Hawks to ruffle feathers?

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamDecember 10, 2025

Market snapshot:

Guidance for BoC and Fed in focus

Yesterday's currency recap

USD held steady after US data showed job openings rising to a five-month high, even as layoffs increased.

JPY underperformed, with GBPJPY pushing higher as investors reassess the BoJ’s tightening path. Japanese officials reiterated they will act against excessive moves. GBPJPY trades near levels last seen in 2008/09.

AUD firmed after RBA Governor Bullock suggested additional cuts may not be needed – and even discussed scenarios where a rate hike could be appropriate. GBPAUD bounced off the October and November lows, with the level continuing to support GBP.

In Europe, EURUSD was flat, with German lawmakers preparing major defence spending approvals and France facing renewed budget tensions.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.44%	2.0022
GBPCAD	-0.20%	1.8423
GBPCHF	-0.10%	1.0735
GBPDKK	-0.04%	8.5464
GBPEUR	-0.04%	1.1443
GBPJPY	0.50%	208.898
GBPNOK	0.05%	13.5001
GBPNZD	-0.28%	2.2995
GBPSEK	-0.60%	12.4495
GBPUSD	-0.05%	1.3317

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 10.12.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 10.12.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
CAD	Interest Rate Decision	Dec	2.25%	2.25%
USD	Interest Rate Decision	Dec	3.75%	4.00%

What we think

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at 2.25% after two recent cuts -markets will focus on the guidance, not the decision. Inflation is still sticky, growth is soft but stabilising, and the BoC has limited room to ease further. Any hint of concern about weak demand or trade headwinds could leave CAD on the back foot, especially if the Fed sounds more active on policy.

The Fed is almost certain to deliver a 25bp cut – its third in a row. The key risk is Powell’s tone and the dot plot. Policymakers are split: doves want more easing given job market softness, while hawks fear inflation hasn’t fully cooled. With job data now more influential than the rate move itself, markets will trade the guidance, not the cut. A cautious or hawkish message could keep the USD supported.

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