Currency news / December 16, 2025

Markets primed for US job numbers

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamDecember 16, 2025

Market snapshot:

Dollar set for volatility?

Yesterday's currency recap

USD slipped as traders positioned themselves for the long awaited US job numbers as well as dovish comments from Fed Miran.

The EUR outperformed against the softer USD on bets for a potential ECB hike in 2026. Meanwhile, GBP lagged after Friday’s weak UK GDP reinforced expectations for a Bank of England rate cut this week.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.20%	2.014
GBPCAD	0.07%	1.8415
GBPCHF	0.09%	1.0655
GBPDKK	-0.06%	8.5015
GBPEUR	-0.06%	1.1381
GBPJPY	-0.48%	207.781
GBPNOK	0.24%	13.5801
GBPNZD	0.40%	2.3094
GBPSEK	0.22%	12.4236
GBPUSD	0.05%	1.3377

*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 16.12.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 16.12.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	Manufacturing PMI	Dec	49.90	49.60
EUR	Services PMI	Dec	53.30	53.60
EUR	Composite PMI	Dec	52.60	52.80
GBP	Manufacturing PMI	Dec	50.30	50.20
GBP	Services PMI	Dec	51.60	51.30
GBP	Composite PMI	Dec	51.50	51.20
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	Nov	50,000
USD	Ave Hourly Earnings YoY	Nov	3.60%
USD	Unemployment Rate	Nov	4.50%
USD	Retail Sales MoM	Oct	0.10%
USD	Retail Sales YoY	Oct	0.40%	-0.10%

What we think

UK job numbers this morning showed Private sector regular pay growth slowed to 3.9% in the three months to October – slightly above consensus but still in line with the BOE's long-term forecast of 3.5% for 4Q25. On an annualised basis, wage growth fell to 2.6%, consistent with the 2% inflation target. The number of employees on payrolls dropped by 38,000 in November, indicating a loosening job market. Market pricing still suggests a rate cut this Thursday along with a 40% chance of seeing two additional cuts in 2026.

US data dominates, with November NFP in focus. This is one of the first clean reads post-shutdown, and consensus expects payroll growth to slow sharply to around 50k, with unemployment steady at 4.5%. Any downside surprise would strengthen the case for further Fed cuts. October US retail sales are also due and expected to be flat, reinforcing signs that consumer spending is cooling.

UK and euro area December PMIs follow. The UK is seen posting a modest post-Budget uptick, with manufacturing just in expansion and services growing slowly. In the euro area, the composite PMI is expected at a 31-month high, but manufacturing remains below 50, underscoring ongoing weakness in goods demand.

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