Yesterday, markets were very subdued as they remained braced for this afternoon’s CPI number from the US.
GBP started the day strong but finished generally lower ahead of today's retail sales and PMI numbers.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 BST, 24.10.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 BST, 24.10.25
Focus today will be on US CPI numbers as USD markets finally have some data to sink their teeth into. There is an expectation that today's numbers will come in higher, which makes sense if you look at this week's gains on USD. Given markets are pricing-in 115bps worth of rate cuts over the next 12 months, we would expect a strong reaction on USD if the numbers suggest too many rate cuts are priced-in.
Following on from the CPI numbers earlier this week, GBP remains vulnerable for further losses if today’s PMI numbers show slower-than-anticipated activity.
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