Currency news / September 5, 2025

US jobs Friday

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamSeptember 5, 2025

Market snapshot:

Watching for movement on future rate cuts

Yesterday's currency recap

USD demand picked up marginally yesterday afternoon following a better-than-expected ISM services number for August, lifted by new orders rising to the highest since last August. Markets largely ignored the disappointing ADP payroll number and jobless claims.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.45%	2.0639
GBPCAD	0.22%	1.8584
GBPCHF	0.18%	1.0832
GBPDKK	0.10%	8.614
GBPEUR	0.10%	1.1539
GBPJPY	0.31%	199.787
GBPNOK	0.67%	13.5917
GBPNZD	0.66%	2.3024
GBPSEK	0.57%	12.7442
GBPUSD	-0.05%	1.3439

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 05.09.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 05.09.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	Aug	75,000	73,000
USD	Unemployment Rate	Aug	4.30%	4.20%
USD	Ave Hourly Earnings MoM	Aug	0.30%	0.30%
USD	Ave Hourly Earnings YoY	Aug	3.70%	3.90%

What we think

UK retail sales rose 0.6% in July versus an expectation of 0.3%. However, there were downward revisions in previous numbers showing that household spending was at a slower pace than initially thought. GBP moves have been muted as a result. All eyes on the job numbers at 1.30pm today. Given how much the markets are already pricing in a 25bp cut in September, it would really need a big disappointment in the numbers to see markets price in the potential for a 50bp cut this month which would result in a weaker USD. A surprise to the upside on job numbers would bring about strength in USD.

Read more about key currency pairs here:

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