UK PMIs disappointed, with November slipping to 50.5 vs the expected 51.8. Gilts outperformed while GBP softened, as public finances showed a £9.9bn overshoot versus OBR projections; and, October retail sales came in well below expectations.
Fed cut odds for December surged to ~75% following dovish comments from Williams and Miran, pushing Treasury yields lower and weighing on the USD. US business activity PMIs hit a four-month high, led by services, as optimism rose on hopes for further cuts and the end of the government shutdown. The USD posted its best week in over a month.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 24.11.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 24.11.25
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a critical test with the upcoming budget, needing to restore confidence in public finances after a year of investor doubts over Britain’s fiscal credibility. Success could reduce uncertainty and support GBP. With a headline income-tax rise reportedly off the table, Reeves appears set to rely on a series of smaller revenue measures – a cautious approach that may struggle to convince markets, potentially keeping pressure on GBP. Sky News this morning reported that the OBR will forecast lower economic growth in 2026 and every year of parliament when details of the budget are released.
European inflation data from Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, plus Germany’s Ifo survey, will feed into ECB outlooks. ECB speakers Lagarde and Lane will comment. BOE’s Megan Greene is also scheduled to speak.
In the US, delayed data will continue, including September retail sales, PPI, and November ADP, Conference Board, and jobless claims. Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.
Elsewhere, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25bps.
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