FX moves were driven by broad USD weakness, as concerns around US institutions and Fed independence dented confidence and pushed markets into a defensive footing. The USD sold off against most peers, while safe havens outperformed, with gold rallying, and CHF and EUR relatively supported vs USD.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 06:00 GMT, 13.01.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 06:00 GMT, 13.01.26
Following speculation of a snap election being called in Japan, JPY is weaker this morning.
US CPI is expected to firm in December, with headline and core seen rising around 0.4% MoM, pushing YoY inflation back toward 2.8%. The pickup is largely technical, reflecting earlier data distortions rather than renewed inflation pressure. Unless core meaningfully overshoots, CPI is unlikely to shift the Fed narrative, though a hot headline could briefly support the USD and lift yields.
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