GBP braces for BoE

Yesterday's currency recap

USD remained under pressure, extending its slide as weak macro data and continued Fed member talk flagged job market worries, seeing markets continue to price-in a 40% chance of three rate cuts this year.

Ahead of today’s BoE meeting, and amid full pricing for a 25 bp rate cut, GBP held firm, even as divisions over a potential 50bp move persist.

EUR traded steady with the currency supported by optimism over potential Ukraine peace talks.

CHF outperformed as negotiations continued to avert US tariffs.

Today's GBP rates

Key data points

What we think

Today's Bank of England meeting is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut, taking the base rate to 4.00%, as the MPC responds to a weakening labour market and persistent signs of slowing growth. Inflation remains sticky, particularly in services, which limits the scope for more aggressive easing, and the vote split will be closely watched for signs of division over the pace of cuts. Markets are fully priced for today's move, so the bigger driver for GBP will be the bank’s updated forecasts and guidance on the path ahead - any hint of a faster cutting cycle could weigh further on GBP, while a cautious tone could offer some support.

Read more about the Bank of England's interest rate decision here:

• When is the next MPC meeting?
• When is the next BoE interest rate decision?

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