Currency news / March 18, 2025

Peace with Putin?

3 min read Lawrence Kaplin

Lawrence KaplinMarch 18, 2025

Market snapshot:

USD: Retail sales show consumers spending slows
EUR: German ZEW in focus today
GBP: Sterling holding steady to start the week

Yesterday's currency recap

US Retail sales raised further concerns as the US consumer continues to slow down their spending habits. Despite the figure being +0.2%, printing higher than its previous reading, it was a big miss vs the expected +0.6%, making the FOMC’s task on Wednesday even more delicate.

Markets were rangebound yesterday, but we could see this shift quickly after Isreal launched its largest strike in Gaza since the agreed ceasefire. Coupled with an unproductive call between Trump and Putin, this certainly could cause concern to ripple through FX markets.

Today, we’ll draw our attention to the Canadian CPIreport, Trump's phone call with Putin and the German ZEW, which is expected to jump to 50.3.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.49%	2.0345
GBPCAD	-0.31%	1.8560
GBPCHF	0.03%	1.1440
GBPDKK	-0.09%	8.8608
GBPEUR	0.13%	1.1875
GBPJPY	0.63%	194.6630
GBPNOK	0.51%	13.6770
GBPNZD	-0.67%	2.2294
GBPSEK	-0.05%	13.0660
GBPUSD	0.40%	1.2996

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 18.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 18.03.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	German ZEW	Feb MoM	50.3	26

What we think

Given the escalation in Gaza, and Putin’s demands over land being considered as unrealistic, we certainly have the events to send markets into a risk-off mood and make haven currencies attractive.

However, the likelihood is markets will remain hesitant and prep for Wednesday and Thursday’s interest rate decisions, especially after US retail sales added further concern to the US economy.

Read more about the Fed and BoJ's interest rate decisions here:

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