Currency news / May 20, 2025

Russia and Ukraine to negotiate end of war?

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamMay 20, 2025

Market snapshot:

Markets mixed despite headlines
AUD weaker on dovish RBA meeting

Yesterday's currency recap

In the aftermath of Moody’s downgrading US debt, the dollar remained lower all throughout yesterday. 30-year treasury yields rose to 5.03% - the highest since 2023; but equities managed to claw back losses and finished the day higher. The EUR had a solid day on a combination of USD selling, as well as comments by European Cental Bank (ECB) President Lagarde that the recent rise of the euro is a consequence of Trump policies and is viewed as an opportunity rather than a concern for Europe.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.20%	2.0731
GBPCAD	-0.15%	1.8542
GBPCHF	0.09%	1.1131
GBPDKK	-0.08%	8.8657
GBPEUR	-0.08%	1.1884
GBPJPY	-0.10%	193.626
GBPNOK	-0.28%	13.8153
GBPNZD	-0.35%	2.2561
GBPSEK	0.36%	12.9854
GBPUSD	-0.27%	1.3268

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 20.05.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 20.05.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	PPI MoM	Mar	0.20%	0.00%
USD	Core PPI MoM	Mar	0.30%	0.20%
USD	PPI YoY	Mar	3.30%	3.20%
USD	Core PPI YoY	Mar	3.60%	3.40%

Today's speeches

GBP: BoE Pill
USD: Fed Bostic and Barkin

What we think

Markets are a bit mixed this morning, despite Trump stating that Russia and Ukraine will immediately start truce talks on ending the war. The dollar is slightly off this morning, despite 30-year treasury yields easing off of yesterday's high.

The Australian dollar is weaker this morning after the RBA interest rate decision was to cut rates by 25bps to 3.85%. The accompanying statement was taken as slightly more dovish than expected, with the Bank lowering GDP forecasts from 2.4% to 2.1%, and trimmed their CPI expectations from 2.7% to 2.6%.

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