Sterling slides as gilt yields rise

Yesterday's currency recap

In the absence of any economic data releases, yesterday’s trading session was once again largely dominated by tariff headlines which came thick and fast.

Trump announced that tariffs will be paid on 1st August and there would be no extensions granted. The EU hit back, with the German finance minister stating the block was ready to retaliate with tariff countermeasures. China were also on the wires, warning the Trump administration against reigniting trade tensions, and threatened to retaliate against any nation that struck deals with the US to cut China out of supply chains.

GBP came under pressure in reaction to a steep rise in gilt yields as UK government debt worries intensified following the recent welfare reform u-turn. The OBR warned of mounting risks to the UK economy and the “relatively vulnerable” position of the UK’s public finances. Elsewhere, the AUD rose across the board after the RBA surprised markets by leaving interest unchanged.

Today's GBP rates

Key data points

Today's speeches

• ECBs Lane, Nagel, De Guindos and Escriva

What we think

The chaotic and punitive US tariff rollout is continuing to undermine the USD's long held safe-haven status and has destabilised global trade as evidenced by the sharp move higher in copper late in yesterday’s session.

US copper had its largest single day percentage gain on record after Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports sending US copper futures to new all-time highs.

The US administration announced it will likely send out letters to another 15-20 countries over the next few days.

Trump also mentioned potential tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceuticals and threatened punitive tariffs for to the EU if it doesn't reach a trade deal with the US.

It remains to be seen if this is indeed a short-term shift or whether Trump's economic policies have caused a permanent change to the status quo.

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