Currency news / March 12, 2025

Tariff man strikes again

3 min read Lawrence Kaplin

Lawrence KaplinMarch 12, 2025

Market snapshot:

USD: Inflation data in focus
EUR: Pushes on
GBP: Bystander

Yesterday's currency recap

Trump headlines and news of Ukraine's willingness to accept an immediate 30-day ceasefire sent markets on a wild ride yesterday. Early in US trading hours, USD, bond yields and equities were all hit hard as Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium imports.

Hours later risk assets turned around sharply on the Ukraine ceasefire headlines and the US announcing they will not increase Canadian tariffs and will hold high level trade talks with Canada on 13th March.

The rejuvenated risk appetite sent the Dollar down to new lows for the year.

The tariff wars continue this morning with the EU stating they will respond to US steel and aluminium tariffs with equal countermeasures.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.03%	2.0567
GBPCAD	0.07%	1.8704
GBPCHF	-0.02%	1.1403
GBPDKK	0.03%	8.8470
GBPEUR	0.02%	1.1861
GBPJPY	0.28%	191.8500
GBPNOK	-0.03%	13.7890
GBPNZD	-0.02%	2.2650
GBPSEK	0.08%	12.9700
GBPUSD	-0.18%	1.2925

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 12.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 12.03.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Headline Inflation	Feb YoY	2.90%	3%
USD	Core Inflation	Feb YoY	3.20%	3.30%
USD	Headline Inflation	Feb MoM	0.30%	0.50%
USD	Core Inflation	Feb MoM	0.30%	0.40%
CAD	Interest Rate Decision	March	2.75%	3%

Speeches

ECB’s Lagarde, Lane and Nagel

What we think

Markets have been thrown around by Trump's constant on/off tariff plans but today may offer a brief respite as the market’s attention turns to macroeconomics.

Later today the US releases inflation data for February where prices are expected to have fallen slightly for the month and year. With the US interest meeting slated for next week, today’s report will be very closely scrutinised for further signs that inflation remains sticky.

See more here - When is the next Fed interest rate decision?

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